Books like Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock

Superforecasting, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, builds on a decade of research and the Good Judgment Project to explore why some people consistently generate accurate predictions. Drawing on data from a government‑funded forecasting tournament that enlisted tens of thousands of everyday individuals, the book demonstrates that high‑quality forecasting requires gathering diverse evidence, applying probabilistic reasoning, collaborating in teams, tracking performance, and openly revising assumptions. The authors illustrate these principles with real‑world examples—from the success of predicting the raid on Osama bin Laden to the failure of the Bay of Pigs invasion—and argue that anyone can improve forecasting skills through disciplined practice. The work explains how the insights from the Good Judgment Project outperform experts in business, finance, politics, and international affairs, and emphasizes the scalability of these techniques for everyday decision making.

First publish date: 2015